ULFA ( United Liberation Front of Assam), an insurgent group active in Indian state of Assam, had been fighting for independent Assam since 1979. During this period, it had got almost 80% of its top leaders arrested by Indian security forces and are lodged in Guwahati ( state Capital of Assam). But Paresh BArua, the self styled ‘commander-in-chief’ of ULFA’s military wing has been absconding and without his arrest or surrender, ULFA is considered to be powerful enough to disturb peace in Assam.

Indian government has been trying to engage ULFA for negotiation for long time now. ULFA is one of the few insurgent groups in North East India, which has not come to negotiation table with Indian government even for once. Though there have been ceasefire many times before between ULFA and Indian security forces, but there was never any negotiation between them.

Recently, Assam government has allowed its top leaders to get bail un-opposed! Many see this as conciliatory gesture by government for paving way for negotiations. ULFA’s vice chairman Pradip Gogoi and Publicity Secretary Mithinga Daimary have been granted bail by Guwahati city court. Few days ago, ULFA adviser Bhimkanta Buragohain alias MAMA was transferred to Guwahati Jail where all other ULF’s top leaders including its founder chairman Arabinda Rajkhowa are lodged.

Here is the news :
Guwahati: Signalling the government’s keenness to give momentum to the peace overtures that it has been indulging the ULFA with, a special anti-terror court here Tuesday released on bail top commanders Pradip Gogoi and Mithinga Daimary. The banned outfit’s vice-chairman Pradip Gogoi was granted bail by the TADA court here in all six cases lodged against him paving way for his immediate release. Source.

Technorati Tags: Assam, Bangladesh, china, India, insurgency, Myanmar, NorthEast, Terrorism, ULFA, ULFA problem

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North-East India’s powerful rebel group NSCN(IM) ( National Socialist Council of Nagaland, Isak Muivah) has recently declined “invitation” from Indian government for next round of peace talks. The Naga group declined on the ground that the peace talk invitation came from ministry of home affairs ( MHA) but not PMO ( Prime Minister’s Office) of Indian union government.

NSCN Rebel picture

It may be noted that, NSCN(IM) has been on ceasefire with Indian government since 1997. Recently, NSCN(IM) members live in designated areas with their arms and ammunition.

Another powerful Naga rebel group NSCN(K) lead by Khaplang is also in ceasefire with Indian government. They are accused to maintain a close links with another powerful, but recently depleted rebel group of NE India, ULFA ( United Liberation Front of Assam).

With recent development like arresting of self styled chairman of ULFA, Arabinda Rajkhowa, in Bangladesh and its prompt handing over to India by Bangladesh government without any extradition treaty between India and Bangladesh, this incident of refusal by NSCN(IM) group to hold peace talks with MHA may be significant development.

India has been experiencing insurgency problems in NE since its independence and Nagas have been at the forefront.

Tough terrains in North East India has been one of the reasons why Indian security forces have been unable to effectively nutralise insurgents. Most probably, lack of development, deep rooted feeling of alienation from mainland India are main reasons for the never ending insurgent problems in North East part of India.

North East India borders four countries, China, Myanmar, Bhutan and Bangladesh. So it is strategically important for India.

Here is the news about NSCN(IM) refusing peace talks with MHA:-

KOHIMA, Jan 4 – The NSCN-IM has turned down the peace talk ‘invitation’ from the Union Home Ministry and accused the latter of not abiding by the bilateral agreement. According to a well placed source, the Union Home Ministry had invited the NSCN-IM for the next round of peace talk sometimes back but the Naga rebel group had turned down theinvitation on the ground that it did not come from the Prime Minister’s Office.

Source.

Technorati Tags: Arabinda Rajkhuwa, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Burma, china, Illegal immigrants, Insurgents in NE, Isak, Myanmar, Naga, Naga Rebel, NE India, NE problems, North East, North East India, NSCN, NSCN(IM), NSCN(K), Paresh Barua, T Muivah, ULFA

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Recent news from India depicts Indian diplomatic success in its eastern border. India has been trying to put pressure on both Bangladesh and Myanmar ( Previously known as Burma) for acting against anti-India separatist groups like ULFA(United Liberation Front of Assam), NSCN ( National Socialist Council of Nagaland) etc for long time now.

North East India Image

Burmese troops have surrounded a base of Naga separatists in the country’s northwest and begun bombing it, Indian military officials said. They said Indian troops have fanned out in the hills opposite this base in Sagaing to arrest any rebels who may try to flee into Indian territory.
The base is operated by the Khaplang faction of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN). There are around 300 rebels at the base, Indian intelligence agencies say. Source.

n another good news for India, two top ULFA leaders have been handed over by Bangladesh to India. This has been good Indian diplomatic achievement considering India has long been demanding Bangladesh for dismantling of ULFA camp and handing over its top leaders to India.

Here is the news :

Dawki (Meghalaya), Nov 6 (PTI) In a major blow to ULFA, Bangladesh has acted against the banned outfit and is believed to have handed over two of its top leaders to Indian security agencies.
Self-styled ULFA foreign secretary Sashadhar Choudhury and finance secretary Chitraban Hazarika were pushed into the Indian territory following a series crackdown on the group’s hideouts in Bangladesh, sources said. Source.

Though India has not been successful in its western border, but it seems to be successful in putting diplomatic pressure on its eastern neighbours for acting against insurgents waging war against India.

Technorati Tags: Bangladesh, Burma, India News, Indian News, Latest Indian News, Myanmar, NE India news, News from India, News India, North East India, NSCN, ULFA

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There have been recent news which may point that India is slowly building up opinions, gauging international reactions to it conducting another nuclear test. And this will be a very China specific this time. The time line goes something like this:-

1. India launched nuclear submarine
2. China increased incursion or India increased news about incursion in its territory.
3. News leaks that Myanmar may be trying to assemble nuclear weapon.
4. USA trying to put pressure on India to sign CTBT.
5. India deploys new generation aircraft in its troubled NE region to counter Chinese build up.
6. Recently, one of the top scientists of nuclear test of 1998, speaks out need for few more testing of Indian nuclear weapons.
7. Experts by western world worrying that India is going to test nuclear weapon soon.

Technorati Tags: 1998 Pokhran, china, CTBT, India, Myanmar, nuclear submarine, Nuclear Test, nuclear weapon, Pakistan, USA

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Recent developments at various places see India and China coming face to face as adversaries. Many incidences have taken place in last few months which portray these two big Asian countries with world’s largest population with mutual distrust and antagonism.

Indo-China Face Off

The few incidences I can remember are:

1. Chinese products banned in India

India banned Chinese dairy products in September, 2008 allegedly contaminated with deadly whitener. Few other countries in Asia and Africa too banned Chinese diary products including Singapore, Australia. India also banned Chinese Mobile and toys. Recently, when India imposes ban on dairy products again as the ban was coming to a end on 24th June 2009, China protested against it. The ban was lifted by Singapore and few other countries after Chinese products passed laboratory tests.

India also banned toys imported from China as well as mobile phones. And recently China threatened tit for tat to Indian products.

2. China tries to stall ADB loan to India

China tried to block India’s ADB(Asian Development Bank) loan as the loans were meant for infrastructure development in Arunachal Pradesh, an Indian state and China claims its own. This is a clear departure of previous Chinese stand on Arunachal Pradesh. Previously, it claimed part of Arunachal Pradesh as its South Tibet territory and now it claims whole of Arunachal Pradesh. Few war of words between foreign ministries followed :-

“We value our ties with China but blocking the loan at Asian Development Bank (ADB) was outrageous,” Minister of State for External Affairs Shashi Tharoor told.

“China has expressed strong discontent. The action can neither change the fact that China and India have a huge territorial controversy, nor China’s fundamental position on the border issues between China and India,” a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman told a news conference on June 18.

3. Indian deploys Air Superior Fighter Jets in North East India

India has recently deployed 2 squadrons of Sukhoi-30 MKI in Northeast India. India claims it is response to Chinese build up in Tibet. China cries fouls and increases its demand over Arunachal Pradesh which is administered by India but claimed by China. Capable of carrying nuclear weapons and tailor-made for Indian

Sukhoi-30 MKI

specifications, the Su-30 MKI is a variant of the Sukhoi Su-30 and is jointly-developed by Russia`s Sukhoi Corporation and India`s Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) for the IAF, said the report.

China fumes over this deployment and protests.

4. Recent Chinese Diplomacy in Sri Lanka

Recent Chinese contract to build a port in Sri Lanka has left India redfaced and Chinese circling of India is complete. China has huge assets in Pakistan, Myanmar and now in Sri Lanka.

5. Recent Chinese Intrusion

China has started increasingly intruding Indian border as per reports. This clearly is aggression against India and India is more than happy to retaliate now.

India and China fought a war in 1962 over boundary dispute which led to humiliating Indian defeat. Now that antagonism has come out in the open which was under “Hindi Chini Bhai Bhai” garb, both India and China may not go to war again. They have these options:-

1. India has Dalai Lama trump card. With many devout Buddhist Followers in the west with celebrities like Richard Gere, India can play Tibet card against China.

2. China can instigate more insurgency in troubled North East and this can be a real headache for India.

3. China can play up Pakistan card against India. With US with no strategic and clear Asian policy with the new president, Barack Obama, China can surely try to isolate India.

Whatever it is, it surely not good for both the countries. USA and Japan will be more than willing to fish in these troubled water.

Just my thinking

Technorati Tags: 1962 war, ADB, Arunachal Pradesh, china, dairy product, Dalai Lama, India, indo-china, lab, LTTE, Myanmar, Pakistan, sri lanka, Sukhoi, Sukhoi-30 MKI, Tibet, Tibet war, toy, USA, war, war of words, World Affairs, world war

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